A report published by the US Geological Survey in 2008 stated: According to paleoclimate studies, there are four types of abrupt climate change. 1. Rapid change in glaciers, ice sheets, and hence sea level; 2. Widespread and sustained changes to the hydrologic cycle; 3. Abrupt change in the northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic Ocean; 4. Rapid release to the atmosphere of methane trapped in permafrost and on continental margins.
The current state of Earth includes item 1, 2, and 4. Melting ice has been elaborated in the previous section, and this section is about permafrost thawing and methane releasing.
The Future of Warming
As mentioned in sections 1-3, methane is the most dangerous greenhouse gas. It is the main component of natural gas. It burns or explodes. Huge amount of methane is stored in Earth, under the high pressure or low temperature environments. It is mainly stored under Siberia permafrost, Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets, and seabed. Since methane is a strong greenhouse gas, as long as a part of it is released, the warming effect can be intensified. This will form a vicious circle, releasing more methane, causing stronger warming effect, and finally releasing all the methane.
What if all the methane stored in the Earth is released due to permafrost melting and rising sea temperature? Several possible predictions are as follows:
- Intensified warming will melt all the ice, and Earth becomes a water world. This conjecture is only possible if Earth can maintain stability. At the moment thatice has not completely melted now, the activities of earthquakes and volcanoes are frequently active. This is an optimistic prediction .
- Methane is easy to burn and explode. If all the methane is released, a little fire could cause a chain detonation of the entire planet. This is the most serious consequence. All countries are still provoking each other now, war is about touch and go. Moreover there are frequent volcanic activities.This consequence cannot be ruled out.
- Earth will not explode, but will trigger a Runaway Greenhouse Effect, releasing all the methane. Methane (natural gas) itself is not toxic, but like carbon dioxide, excessive inhalation causes death by asphyxiation. Too much methane and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere wipe out all living beings. The runaway greenhouse effect could make our Earth become Venus or Mars.
Runaway Greenhouse Effect
Runaway greenhouse effect is a process in which the greenhouse effect is intensified in a continuous cycle until it gets out of control. This will completely evaporate the ocean. This phenomenon occurred in the early history of Venus (De Bergh, 1970), and on Mars as well. Venus keeps the atmosphere but with the component mainly carbon dioxide. On Mars, the entire planet turned into a desert, because most of gases escaped into space. Mars has only a thin atmosphere and a few ice cap at North and South poles.
According to the study (Ingersoll, 1969), the runaway greenhouse effect on Venus may be caused by the increased brightness of the Sun. The oceans on Venus thus evaporated a lot, and water vapor heated up the air temperature, and all the seawater eventually evaporated. Water vapor is also a strong greenhouse gas, which enhances the greenhouse effect. The runaway greenhouse effect on Mars is, according to researchers, consequence of a giant meteorite impact.
In addition to the Sun and meteorites, other factors may still trigger the runaway greenhouse effect. Climatologist James Hansen warned in his 2009 book, Storms of my Grandchildren, that burning coal and fossil fuel will cause the runaway greenhouse effect on Earth. Mr. Hansen only mentioned coal and fossil fuels. However, the large amounts of greenhouse gases produced by livestock, and methane and carbon dioxide released from permafrost and seabed, will greatly increase the probability of his warning being realized.
Released Methane
The picture above shows Omulyakhskaya and Khromskaya Bays of northern Siberian coast. Permafrost blankets the land around the bays, where is dotted with thermokarst lakes. They result from water released by thawing permafrost. The water in these lakes is generally warm compared to the surrounding frozen ground. Because the beds of thermokarst lakes warm the ground underneath, generally keeping it from freezing. Hence gases come out through lakes. Thawing permafrost and thermokarst lakes release carbon dioxide and methane. Thermokarst lake is a special landscape of Siberia permafrost.
In March 2017, Russian news reported that: Scientists discovered unidentified bumps in the northwestern of Siberia 2016. Tracking observations showed that these bumps eventually burst and formed large craters. Methane exceeded 1000 times above the norm, and carbon dioxide was 25 times above the norm in the air above. Scientists speculate that this is due to permafrost melting caused by climate change, resulting in massive release of methane underground. (Siberian Times 2017)
The first crater was found in 2014. The reason by scientist’s conjecture was that summers of 2012 and 2013 were too hot. According to the 2017 investigation and calculation, there were 7,000 bumps have cropped up in the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas. These bumps and craters are getting more and bigger now. The news in 2020 stated that 17 bumps have erupted and 400 more are possible. If these craters are near water body, they will become thermokarst lakes. Professor Bogoyavlensky of the Russian Academy of Sciences leads a team tracking and observing these mounds.
Bacterium Escape
In the last decade or two, there have been frequent reports of ancient animals being discovered because of permafrost thawing. In fact, there is a major concern that frozen virus or germs may become active again. According Siberian Times, Siberia has experienced anthrax deaths in both 2012 and 2016. The anthrax was embedded in a human or reindeer corpse. Unusually hot summer weather in Arctic awoke the deadly infection. It had been dormant since at least 1941, when the last outbreak occurred.
20 were contracted anthrax in 2016, and a 12-years-old boy died because of that. He ate contaminated reindeer meat and drank its blood before death. The medical crisis was caused by a frozen reindeer corpse showed after the permafrost thawing. It infected other reindeer. Russia sent troops to incinerate at high temperatures the carcasses of infected reindeer.
Anthrax is an acute disease caused by the bacillus anthracis. It affects humans and other animals. When spores are inhaled, ingested, or come into contact with a skin lesion on a host, they may become reactivated and multiply rapidly. Anthrax commonly infects herbivorous mammals. They ingest or inhale the spores while grazing. Carnivores living in the same environment may become infected by consuming infected animals.
News Film Recommended
A short news footage about the current situation in Siberia, filmed by BBC in September 2020. This is only four minutes long, and suitable for presentations or classes. Anyone who needs it may embed the link according to BBC terms.
Further Reading: 1-2 The Cost of Meat Eating Habit and Livestock｜1-3 Greenhouse Effect and Greenhouse Gases ｜ 1-5 The Real Percentage of Emission ｜2-1 Melting Ice
Cited Reports: 1969_Ingersoll_A History of Water on Venus｜1970_De Bergh_The CO2 in Venus Atmosphere｜USGS Abrupt Climate Change｜Siberian Times｜BBC News
Relative Download: Diet and Environment Relative Download
